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## Short Note on the 2025 U.S. Tariff War  


The **Trump administration** has initiated a sweeping global trade war by imposing unprecedented tariffs, marking a historic shift from decades of U.S.-led free trade policies. Key aspects include:  


### ⚔️ 1. **Key Tariff Actions**  

- **Universal Baseline Tariff**: A 10% minimum tariff on all imports, with higher "reciprocal tariffs" targeting 92 countries based on trade deficits, ranging from **15% (EU, Japan, South Korea)** to **35–50% (Canada, Brazil, Switzerland)**.  

- **Country-Specific Escalations**: Canada faces a new 35% tariff (up from 25%), linked to border security and political disputes, while China confronts combined tariffs up to **145%**.  

- **Sectoral Tariffs**: Additional levies like **50% on steel/aluminum** and **20% on pharmaceuticals**.  


### 💰 2. **Economic Impact**  

- **Domestic Costs**: U.S. households could pay **$2,400 more annually** due to higher import prices. The July 2025 jobs report showed **stalled growth (73,000 jobs added)** and downward revisions of **258,000 jobs** for May–June, partly attributed to trade uncertainty.  

- **Global Losses**: Studies project **U.S. welfare losses up to 4%**, with global trade flows expected to contract by **5.5–8.5%**.  


### 🌍 3. **Global Response**  

- **Retaliation**: Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU imposed counter-tariffs affecting **$330 billion of U.S. exports**.  

- **Deals vs. Deadlock**: The EU, UK, Japan, and South Korea secured reduced rates (10–15%) via investment pledges (e.g., **Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment**). **No deals** were reached with Mexico, Canada, or China before the August 1 deadline.  

- **Supply Chain Shifts**: Chinese exports are rerouting through Mexico and Vietnam to bypass tariffs, complicating U.S. enforcement.  


### ⚖️ 4. **WTO and Legal Challenges**  

- The World Trade Organization (WTO) faces irrelevance as bilateral deals replace multilateral rules.  

- U.S. courts challenge tariffs' legality, citing misuse of the **International Emergency Economic Powers Act**;

rulings could void $1.8 trillion in projected revenue.  


### 💎 Conclusion  

This tariff war signifies a **protectionist overhaul** of global trade, prioritizing unilateral leverage over cooperation. While aiming to reduce trade deficits and boost manufacturing, it risks **stagflation, supply chain fractures, and lasting geopolitical rifts**.

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